Estimation of the Daily Maximum Air Temperature for Baghdad City Using Multiple Linear Regression

Authors

  • Hayder M. Al-Samarrai Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology, Baghdad, IRAQ.
  • Monim H. Al-Jiboori Atmospheric Sciences Department, College of Science, Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, IRAQ. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0816-3918

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23851/mjs.v33i4.1168

Keywords:

maximum air temperature, bias, subtropical climate, Iraq, multiple linear regression

Abstract

In this paper, we relied on historical observations for the period between (2005-2020) for the Baghdad meteorological station, which is characterized by a hot, dry climate in summer and cold and rainy in winter, as it is an example of a subtropical region. The multiple linear regression equation was developed and improved to produce a formula that predicts maximum air temperature. This was done by relying on climatic elements, namely minimum air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity, and entering them into the formula as independent inputs that have a direct impact on estimating the maximum air temperature also calculating the correlation coefficients for each of them. The bias of the model was calculated and its value was entered as the correction for errors that accompany the application of the model.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

M. Kanda, "Progress in urban meteorology: A review," J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. Ser. II, vol. 85, pp. 363-383, 2007.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.85B.363

W. Li, Q. Cao, K. Lang, and J. Wu, "Linking potential heat source and sink to urban heat island: Heterogeneous effects of landscape pattern on land surface temperature," Sci. Total Environ., vol. 586, pp. 457-465, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.191

CrossRef | PubMed

T. Ahmed, M. Scholz, F. Al-Faraj, and W. Niaz, "Water-related impacts of climate change on agriculture and subsequently on public health: A review for generalists with particular reference to Pakistan," Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, vol. 13, no. 11, p. 1051, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13111051

CrossRef | PubMed

W. Schlenker and M. J. Roberts, "Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., vol. 106, no. 37, pp. 15594-15598, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106

CrossRef | PubMed

D. Cho, C. Yoo, J. Im, Y. Lee, and J. Lee, "Improvement of spatial interpolation accuracy of daily maximum air temperature in urban areas using a stacking ensemble technique," GIScience Remote Sens., vol. 57, no. 5, pp. 633-649, 2020.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2020.1766768

R. Bansal, M. Ochoa, and D. Kiku, "Climate change and growth risks," National Bureau of Economic Research, 2017.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w23009

G. S. Tudorache, "SELECTIVE PARAMETRIC SPECIFICITY OF CLUJ-NAPOCA METEOROLOGICAL STATION ACCORDING TO ANNEX 1B OF WMO NO. 8 GUIDE," Aerul si Apa. Compon. ale Mediu., pp. 43-50, 2018.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.24193/AWC2018_06

Y. Zhang, I. Held, and S. Fueglistaler, "Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics," Nat. Geosci., vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 133-137, 2021.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00695-3

A. Hannachi, I. T. Jolliffe, and D. B. Stephenson, "Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: A review," Int. J. Climatol. A J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 27, no. 9, pp. 1119-1152, 2007.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1499

S. Nurdiati, E. Khatizah, M. K. Najib, and L. L. Fatmawati, "El nino index prediction model using quantile mapping approach on sea surface temperature data," Desimal J. Mat., vol. 4, no. 1, 2021.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.24042/djm.v4i1.7595

L. Crochemore, M.-H. Ramos, and F. Pappenberger, "Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts," Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 20, no. 9, pp. 3601-3618, 2016.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016

M. H. Al-Jiboori, M. J. Abu Al-Shaeer, and A. S. Hassan, "Statistical forecast of daily maximum air temperature in arid areas in the summertime," J. Math. Fundam. Sci., vol. 52, no. 3, 2020.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2020.52.3.8

V. Sissakian, N. Al-Ansari, and S. Knutsson, "Origin of some transversal linear features of NE-SW trend in Iraq, and their geological characters," Nat. Sci., vol. 6, no. 12, pp. 996-1011, 2014.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/ns.2014.612091

A. A. Al Khudhairy, "Spatio-temporal analysis of Maximum temperature over Iraq," Al-Mustansiriyah J. Sci., vol. 29, no. 1, 2018.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.23851/mjs.v29i1.257

R. M. Shubbar, H. H. Salman, and D. Lee, "Characteristics of climate variation indices in Iraq using a statistical factor analysis," Int. J. Climatol., vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 918-927, 2017.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4749

H. A. Pahlavan, B. Zahraie, M. Nasseri, and A. Mahdipour Varnousfaderani, "Improvement of multiple linear regression method for statistical downscaling of monthly precipitation," Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 15, no. 9, pp. 1897-1912, 2018.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-017-1511-z

R. Nuzzo, "Statistical errors," Nature, vol. 506, no. 7487, p. 150, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/506150a

CrossRef | PubMed

C. Piani, J. O. Haerter, and E. Coppola, "Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe," Theor. Appl. Climatol., vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 187-192, 2010.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0134-9

C. J. Willmott and K. Matsuura, "Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance," Clim. Res., vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 79-82, 2005.

CrossRef DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr030079

Downloads

Key Dates

Published

30-12-2022

Issue

Section

Original Article

How to Cite

[1]
H. M. Al-Samarrai and M. H. . Al-Jiboori, “Estimation of the Daily Maximum Air Temperature for Baghdad City Using Multiple Linear Regression”, Al-Mustansiriyah J. Sci., vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 9–14, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.23851/mjs.v33i4.1168.

Similar Articles

1-10 of 428

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.