Evaluation of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) Simulations over Middle East

Thaer Obaid Roomi

doi:10.23851/mjs.v29i2.227

Authors

Thaer Obaid Roomi Lecturer, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, University of Mustansiriyah

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23851/mjs.v29i2.227

Keywords:

numerical weather prediction, WRF, NCL, Middle East

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is an atmospheric simulation system designed for both research and operational applications. This worldwide used model requires a sophisticated modeling experience and computing skills. In this study, WRF model was used to predict many atmospheric parameters based on the initial conditions extracted from NOMADS data sets. The study area is basically the region surrounded by the longitudes and latitudes: 15o-75o E and 10.5o-45o N which typically includes the Middle East region. The model was installed on Linux platform with a grid size of 10 km in the X and Y directions. A low pressure trough was tracked in its movement from west to east via the Middle East during the period from 1 to 7 January 2010 as a case study of the WRF model. MATLAB and NCAR Command Language (NCL) were used to display the model output. To evaluate the forecasted parameters and patterns, some comparisons were made between the predicted and actual weather charts. Wind speeds and directions in the prognostic and actual charts of 700 hPa were in agreement. However, the predicted values of geopotential heights in WRF are somewhat overestimate the actual ones. This may be attributed to the differences in the data sources and data analysis methods of the two data agencies, NOMADS and ECMWF.

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