Using the Polar Jet Stream Core Wind Speed to Estimate the Surface Low Pressure System value during winter

hazim D. mohsin

doi:10.23851/mjs.v30i1.448

Authors

hazim D. mohsin

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23851/mjs.v30i1.448

Abstract

The work studied the relationship between polar jet stream core speed at 300 hPa level and the surface low pressure system on winter seasons during years from 2014 to 2016. Februaries were chosen from winter seasons which the polar jet stream passes with high frequencies over the area of study. The study presented that the structure of polar jet was almost continuous jet-type structure that the jet core was easy to recognize and it had indirect relationship with the low pressure systems at surface. the Pearson's (R) statistical test used to show the strength of that relationship which accessible values were between (0.6 - 1) that presented the core speed values as a good element to derive equation connecting between the low pressure system value in (hPa) at surface and core speed value in (kt) at 300 hPa level . The simple linear regression technique is used to drive the equation that connects between the low pressure system and the jet core speed value which was (Low pressure center value (hPa) =1042.57 ̶ (0.307 × core speed (kt) )) . The equation was tested against some jet stream cases at 300 hPa that were the highest value of the jet core speed, the lowest and middle selected value which presented the percentage errors were between (0.03-0.09). the chart analyzing presented the lowest low pressure system center corresponded the highest the jet core speed values as shown in 11 Feb., 2015 at 00 UTC which the core speed was 150 (kt) corresponding the surface low pressure system which was 993 (hPa)

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Mahlman, J. D., "On the maintenance of polar jet stream,". J. Amto., vol. 30,112-130, 1972.

Bluestein, H. B., "Synoptic-dynamic meteorology in midlatitudes, " Oxford Univ., vol. 2, 30-50, 1993.

Kalnay E., Kanamitsu, M. Kistler, R. Collins, W. Deavon, D. Gandin, L. Iredell, M. Saha, S. White, G. Woollen, J. Zhu, Y. Chelliah, M. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, W. Janowiak, J. Ropelewski, C. Wang, J. Leetmaa, A. Reynolds, R. Jenne, R. and Joseph, D., "The NCEP/NCAR 40-year

reanalysis project, " Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 77, 437–471, 1996.

Allaby, M., "Encyclopedia Of Weather And Climate, " Infobase publishing. vol. 2, 676 pp, 2007.

Francis, J.A., and Vavrus S. J., "Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming, " Environ. Res. Lett., vol.10, 1748-9326, 2015.

Gaetani, M. B., Dalu, G. A., and Maracchi, G., " Jetstream and rainfall distribution in the Mediterranean region, " Institute of Biometeorology, IBIMET, CNR, Rome, Italy, vol. 20,100-120. 2011.

Kidston, J. G., Vallis, S. D., and Renwick, J., " Can the increase in the eddy length scale under global warming cause the pole-ward shift of the jet stream, " Journal of climate, vol. 24, 3764-3780, 2011.

Lang, A. A., Martin, J. E., "The structure and evolution of lower stratospheric frontal zones. Part I: Examples in northwesterly and southwesterly flow, " Q.J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 138, 1350–1365, 2012.

Holton, J. R., "An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, " 3rd edition, Academic Press, 511pp, 1992.

Rikus, L., " A simple climatology of westerly jet streams in global reanalysis datasets part 1: mid latitude upper tropospheric jets, " Clim. Dynam.,vol. 10, 1007-1020, 2015.

Carlson, W., and Thome, B., "Applied Statistical methods for Business, Economics and the Social Sciences," prentice hall, 705pp, 1997.

Hinkle D. E., and Wiersma, W. J., "Applied statisics for the behavioral sciences, Mass, " Houghton Mifflin, London, 412 pp, 2003.

Yazdani, M. R., Javad, K. D., Mohammad, M., and Ashish, S.,'' Trend Detection of the Rainfall and Air Temperature Data in the Zayandehrud Basin.'', Journal of Applied Sciences, vol. 11, 2125-2134, 2011.

https://www.mapsofworld.com/lat_long/iraq-lat-long.html.retrived on

st,september,2017.